Updated: Jun 28, 2020
Saturday Betting Tips: Newmarket, Newcastle & Curragh
It feels great to be back tipping for Horse Race Ratings, and I have plenty of selections in store for you on what promises to be as usual a Super Saturday of racing. In this week’s column I have selections at the Curragh, Newmarket and Newcastle. I have separated all three meetings that I’ve covered, so everything is much more convenient and easier for you to read instead of bombarding all tips into one section. I do hope you all have a great weekend, and fingers crossed we manage some nice winners combined with profit.
FLIGHT RISK (17.45 Curragh, 0.5pt each-way @10/1
The 10/1 about FLIGHT RISK looks relatively attractive from a betting perspective. His form at this track is quite impressive and he’s already proven to be capable of a high level of form having previously won multiple Group/Listed races, including three times last year against better opposition. He holds his enthusiasm extremely well, and is the only horse with the right combination of positives to back. This contest looks like it may have been the plan for a while and the form he has in the locker, he looks the perfect selection.
FRENETIC (18.45 Curragh, 2pt win @6/4)
A few of these are turned out quickly on the back of decent performances last time out, but as boring as it might seem, I can’t get away from the favourite FRENETIC who made such a breathtaking debut when slamming a decent field at Navan 17 days ago. That form has worked out nicely with the runner-up Mother Earth finishing third in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Dandalla, and she’s taken to remain unbeaten for the Ger Lyons and Colin Keane combination.
FISCAL RULES (19.15 Curragh, 0.5pt each-way @8/1)
TIGER MOTH (19.15 Curragh, 0.5pt each-way @16/1
This year’s Irish Derby looks wide-open and I am keen to avoid the market leaders who look poor value in contrast to a couple of other unexposed types that are open to a considerable amount of improvement.
One of those to consider is FISCAL RULES trained by Kevin Manning who has a good record in the race despite it being dominated by Aidan O’Brien in recent times. He was second on his debut before stepping up to Group 1 company on just his second racecourse experience in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, and he finished a creditable fifth considering his lack of experience and being forced to come wide around the field. He was strong all the way to the finishing line to not be beaten far, and his breeding suggests this extra yardage will be to his liking. A good draw in stall 5, with two excellent runs in defeat make him an attractive each-way selection, so at 8/1 each-way, he is well worth considering.
The same can be applied to TIGER MOTH who could be anything for Aidan O’Brien. Having already been quoted the same odds as Santiago for the English Derby (most likely won’t run) he’s still four times the price of that horse here which is clearly wrong. I thought he did well to see off Dawn Patrol last time out, though unproven over today’s distance, there is a good deal of chance he will relish it while the draw in stall 2 is a plus as well. He brings an unexposed profile to the race and I’m happy to take my chances on him at 14/1.
BLOWN BY WIND (13,30 Newmarket, 1pt win @13/2
ARBALET (13.30 Newmarket, 1pt win @11/4
This is a competitive race and not much separates the whole field on rating figures, but I quite like two in the contest who no doubt have the form in the book to win this.
The first of those being top-weight BLOWN BY WIND. The signs are that this will be hard for him to give weight away to the rest of the field. However, his battle-hardened experience will stand him in good stead being a former C&D winner, and the booking of James Doyle makes him even more appealing. His win here over C&D two starts ago has worked out well with the second, third and fourth all running respectable races at Royal Ascot last week.
Blown By Wind also ran at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Handicap, and his finishing effort when 13th of 23 should be recognised as decent based on the fact he had to encounter the dreaded draw in stall 1. His assured pace and ground versatility will be a plus returning to much calmer waters at a track he likes this afternoon and therefore he could represent some delicious value.
Meanwhile, ARBALET is given one final chance by myself. There is no doubt he has the ability to win this race, especially reflecting on his whole career performances to date. He went mightily close to winning just six days ago at Redcar, but ultimately he should have won the race having also run well on his seasonal/stable debut over C&D two runs ago. The bare form of those two defeats basically puts him alongside most, if not all, in here from a form perspective, and with Jim Crowley on his back, this could be the time he finally comes good again.
DO YOU LOVE ME (15.15 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @14/1)
I have gone over this race multiple times, and based on overall statistics, I am going to avoid the two market principles with one of those being Thunderous who returns from an absence. All of the last 16 winners have had a previous run this season, and Volkan Star doesn’t look genuine enough to be getting involved in. Therefore, this leaves the door open for DO YOU LOVE ME who looks really interesting. She’s had just the one run in her career so far, but did show a fair amount of ability over a slightly longer trip. She receives weight from her fellow market leaders, and Karl Burke has just this sole runner on today’s card with Andrea Atzeni booked to ride. There is no doubt she will need vastly improved form to win this, but there is every possibility she can do just that.
STAXTON (13.15 Newcastle, 0.5pt each-way @10/1
GLEN SHIEL (13.15 Newcastle, 0.5pt each-way @5/1
The Saturday action doesn’t stop as we now move onto Newcastle’s tips. STAXTON was taken out of an engagement recently in order to run in this race instead. He’s a great servant for connections, and has done all of his winning and good runs in defeat off much higher marks in the past which have all came in better company. He has slipped to a mark that is 5lb below his last success, and that win over C&D last year. We know he acts well at the course and I’m quietly confident he will run a blinder here with David Allan preferring him over the stablemate Danzan.
GLEN SHIEL is consistent and fared better than the result suggested in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot when 10th of 23 runners. He pretty much set it up for the rest having cut out most of the running until the furlong pole. He has previously finished second over C&D when giving weight to a progressive sort, and his form at the track reads figures of 2-3-2 from three runs. The drop down in trip and finding himself in a race that will have plenty of pace will definitely suit, so he has to be considered well-treated here off the exact same mark.
FOX CHAMPION (13.50 Newcastle, 0.5pt each-way @33/1
A competitive Group three race is on show here and I am mindful of the fact that low drawn numbers have the advantage, so I am willing to take a chance on FOX CHAMPION who is wildly overpriced in the market for this race. As mentioned previously, those who are drawn low tend to hold the upper hand in this race, so with this four-year-old handed stall 6, he could bounce back to form. He didn’t shape at all badly in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last week, and although his form tailed off towards the backend of last season, he was often highly tried. It is significant to see Silvestre De Sousa booked for the ride again along with being Richard Hannon’s only representative on Newcastle’s card.
LORD RIDDIFORD (14.25 Newcastle, 0.5pt each-way @15/2
LORD RIDDIFORD was pulled out of a race last week, presumably when it became apparent the ground wouldn’t be to his liking, and invariably has been overlooked in the market for this race. He’s very well-treated off today’s mark 93 having been competitive formerly off higher marks. Stall 9 shouldn’t pose any sort of problem, and if returning in the same form as last season, there is a good chance he can be competitive here.
CARAVAN OF HOPE (15.35 Newcastle, 1pt each-way @8/1 (Variety of bookmakers paying 5 places)
The concluding race on my batch of selections comes in the Northumberland Plate. Normally, I would aim to pick out two-to-three selections. Having said that, I’m quite bullish on the chances of CARAVAN OF HOPE. I do wish he was drawn slightly lower than 17. Even so, their is no doubt he brings one of the best profiles to the race. If you take away the one negative which is the draw, this unexposed and improving four-year-old ticks a lot of main trends for the race. All three runs he has contested over 1m5f+ previously, gives me plenty of confidence he will eke out further improvement over today’s distance.