Saturday Betting Tips: 25/07/2020

Updated: Jul 25, 2020

Saturday Betting Tips: York and Ascot

Hello everyone,


We have had an unbelievable week so far with plenty of winners across the board including 50/1, 14/1 and 11/2 winning selections that I have posted throughout the week on Twitter. Here are tomorrow’s selections coming at both York and Ascot. Best of luck.


SUMMA PETO (13.50 Ascot, 0.25pt each-way @40/1)

NAVAL CROWN (13.50 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way @9/2)


This looks a nice race from a betting point of view and I think the Keith Dalgleish-trained SUMMA PETO has an excellent each-way chance. I’m surprised to see this one available at such a big price as I firmly had him in my tracker after his short head defeat at Ayr last time out. Although that was only a match-race against his sole rival March Law, the eventual winner had the benefit of more experience having finished second in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot prior to that engagement. The runner-up was having just his second career outing and probably would have won in another stride having come with a strong run in the final 100 yards. 


His debut performance at the same track when also second has worked out nicely with the winner International Dream running well to finish third in a highly-competitive Listed race at Sandown a few weeks ago. Evidently, Summa Peto will need more improvement here but he’s slightly unfortunate to have not been unbeaten coming into today’s race having only just failed on both occasions while the booking of Tom Marquand is significant. I think the 50/1 available is just too big to ignore, therefore, I am happy to take a chance on him from an each-way angle with small stakes advised in this wide-open contest. 


Charlie Appleby holds an impressive 25% strike-rate at this track with his juveniles and he runs the exciting NAVAL CROWN who would have learnt a lot in his debut third at Newmarket. The form of that race has a lot of substance as it puts this Dubawi colt alongside all the leading contenders for today’s race on a line through runner-up Magical Land who had the benefit of experience and finished in front of the likes of Nando Parrado on debut - who went on to beat a few of these including Saeiqa at Royal Ascot in the Coventry Stakes. Naval Crown will enjoy today’s quicker surface and has the most scope for improvement in comparison to today’s rivals. The yard is flying, William Buick is in the saddle and a bold bid can be expected from him in a nice low-draw of stall five. 


AWARD SCHEME (14.05, York, 2pt win @2/1)


Having placed on her first three outings AWARD SCHEME (NAP) was a game winner on her handicap debut at Salisbury showing a tremendous attitude to see off all opposition off a mark of 79 despite playing up behind the stalls. Admittedly - this is a much deeper race, but she’s improving all the time and an 8lb rise looks more than within her capabilities, especially with Danny Tudhope booked to ride who could have ridden for his own boss in the race. Furthermore, William Haggas has an excellent strike-rate at this track and this filly can be signalled as his only representative on the card representing the colours of the Queen. She has more to come this season, and I’m hopeful she will win this before going onto much bigger and better opportunities.


SHELIR (14.25 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way @11/1)

ARBALET (14.25 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way @16/1)

All odds are with bookmakers paying 5 places. 


Plenty to consider in a wide open sprint but I’m eager to go double-handed in the race with the David O’meara trained SHELIR and ARBALET who offer attractive value at double-digits. The former SHELIR was highly tried when trained in Ireland and has improved with each outing since switching to the shrewd Yorkshire-based handler David O’Meara, including an eye-catching fifth of 27 runners in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 97 from a poor draw.


His performance deserves a great deal of praise due to the fact he fared best of all those protagonists drawn low. In fact, for instance, he stormed past Ebury late on that day and is even better off at the weights for their second clash here. On the face of it, looking at the race from a form perspective, the bookmakers have Ebury priced up at around 6/1 unlike Shelir who is three-times those odds at around 16/1 which I think is completely wrong given the clear evidence of our selection comfortably finishing in front of Ebury when they previously met over C&D albeit the race was divided into three separate groups. 


He couldn’t land a blow next time out under a big-weight on soft ground when only sixth, but he’s much more adaptable to large-field events with conditions likely to be in his favour here. The 2lb drop in the weights is a welcome addition to one of the reasons for supporting him for this event. Therefore, providing he can overcome another low berth in stall 3, he’s an each-way player on just his fourth start for connections with Tom Marquand, an interesting jockey booking.


The other one I really like the look of at a big price is Shelir’s stable companion ARBALET who by all means isn’t the most straight-forward of horses, but there is no denying his ability and his previous course and distance form will stand him in good stead while on a much lower-mark in comparison to his four previous C&D efforts which were off marks of 100, 104 and 95. He’s always performed above market expectations at this track and has arguably been competing against much stronger races throughout his career. 


His three runs for David O’Meara have been encouraging, especially his latest fourth of 17 at York under top-weight of 9-10 where he was nearest the finish which was another step in the right direction indicating his turn of success might be near. There’s just too much to like to let him go unbacked from a generous-looking mark being on a low-weight of 8-7. The booking of Andrea Atzeni is no negative being a good assistance to the saddle, and he will for me at 16/1 or bigger. 


TELECASTER (14.40 York, 1pt win @11/4)


An intriguing renewal of the Sky Bet York Stakes, on a variety of levels, and the one I am more than happy to side with at a best price of around 3/1 is the Hughie Morrison-trained TELECASTER. Initially, he looked a top-class prospect in the making throughout the first half of 2019 which included a good defeat of the brilliant Too Darn Hot over C&D in the Group 2 Dante Stakes. Unfortunately - his season ended with disappointment when well beaten in the Epsom Derby having been supported into 5/1 second favourite before only finishing seventh in the Coral-Eclipse on his final start that campaign. 


Nevertheless, Telecaster shaped really nicely on his return to action when just behind Elarqam and Lord North in a Group 3 at Haydock battling on well all the way to the line. It didn’t help matters that he raced keenly throughout, otherwise, he might well have won having travelled stealthily well compared to the eventual first and second. He then put his assured fitness to good use when comfortably dispatching a decent field in France by five lengths and this weekend’s race seems likely to have been one of his main targets this season. 


I am inclined to believe Telecaster will reverse Haydock form with last year’s winner and we know his career-best performance came over C&D when beating a 126-rated rival. Taking into account that he’s got his career back on track, has C&D winning form, loves quick ground and with the stable starting to hit top-form, I think he’s the only runner with the right combination of positives worth backing so I can envisage his class proving decisive back at the scene of his biggest career-success.


JOHAN (15.00 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way @9/2)


Another competitive-handicap which can go the way of the highly-progressive JOHAN trained by William Haggas. He’s won three of his five starts to date and the only couple of occasions he’s tasted defeat was at the hands of 2,000 Guineas fourth Military March. He didn’t handle testing conditions at Newmarket a couple of runs ago, but the form has been well-advertised by the first five home who finished in front of him either winning or placing since at a very fair-level. 


The winner ran well in the 2,000 Guineas to finish fourth, the second and third placed horses subsequently finished first and second in a Listed event along with the fourth and fifth placed horses winning since off marks of 99 and 102. Interestingly, all those horses mentioned are now rated 104+ so the mere fact that Johan’s nearest rival here is only 95 gives him excellent claims of maintaining his winning sequence. He’s handed a confident vote to provide his well-established trainer and jockey with another decent winner this season. 


ELWAZIR (15.15 York, 0.5pt each-way @7/1)

SILENT ATTACK (15.15 York, 0.5pt each-way @25/1)


Owen Burrows has his team in fine order of late and ELWAZIR has an excellent each-way chance. He was heavily involved in a red-hot contest last time out and a repeat of the same form off the same mark entitles him to the utmost respect in this similarity-competitive race. This race does demand more but he’s contested much higher-grade company previously and it is very interesting to see connections drop him right back to seven furlongs. I think that is the ideal solution due to the fact that his speed figures are quite high in comparison to today’s participants and his tactical speed could prove the difference here, especially knowing that his latest run should have sorted him out fitness-wise. 


The other one I want to side with is the outsider of the field SILENT ATTACK where by my reckoning he should be a fair bit closer to the market leaders in the betting. I have plenty of respect for Greenside who should go close here, but I think there's plenty of value in the 25/1 about Silent Attack. His last two performances on the turf have been underwhelming, but they have both come at Ascot and I find it fascinating to see connections have another go with him on the turf in this single-figure race. 


Clearly - Silent Attack is a much better horse on the AW, but he’s only 1lb above his last winning mark and if he’s able to translate that AW form to the turf then surely he has an excellent each-way chance from a mark that is well within his capabilities. One aspect of his chance that I’ve identified which is well worth a mention is the 7-year-olds form figures in single-number fields. His record in fields of nine-runners or less in the UK reads an impressive 2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 1 and 2 - today’s race is a nine-runner field! 


The above that I’ve mentioned gives clear indication that he’s a much happier horse in these small-assembled fields. Ben Curtis has also been rebooked for the ride who has ridden him twice previously, winning once and coming second on the other occasion. Furthermore, Silent Attack has placed five times at this level previously so the grade will be no hindrance to him. Even though it would be asking a lot for him to go and win a race of this nature, it wouldn’t come as a shock if he were to outrun his double-figure odds. 


TUKHOOM (15.50 York, 0.5pt each-way @6/1)


TUKHOOM has to shoulder top-weight here but he’s entitled to do so after beating a much deeper field a week ago over this trip when making all of the running. We can expect similar tactics to be deployed again and despite being 6lb higher for this event, I really can’t see him out of the frame at the very least representing David O’Meara who could be in for a big pay day on Saturday afternoon. I would normally try and shy away from the market leaders in these types of contests, but he’s rock-solid, especially now proven at the track and over this distance. 


SPEEDO BOY (17.20 Ascot, 1pt each-way @15/2)


A very open-looking staying event in which plenty can stake a claim, but preference goes to the Ian Williams-trained SPEEDO BOY (E/W NAP) who gets his favoured ground today and will have the assistance of top-class William Buick in the saddle. This six-year-old can also be recognised as the only C&D winner in the line-up having won here back in 2018 off a mark of (93). He’s 1lb lower today and went close twice since that success off a mark of (96) including when chasing home globetrotter Red Galileo at Newmarket last season. 


This admirable, dual-purpose horse has also finished respectable sixth and seventh placed positions in both the Cesarewitch and Chester Cup off a mark of (98) which is good form given he’s 4lb lower for this easier race. This contest looks like it may have been the plan for a while and his latest run should have put him straight for today’s race. I’m finding it very difficult to find any chinks in his armour as he will love quick conditions, stays much further, has a touch of class along with course and distance winning form, and is back on a mark we know he can take advantage of. I just think he has an ideal set-up here and 15/2 offers cracking value as far as I’m concerned.


Shortlist...


AWARD SCHEME (9/4)

TUKHOOM (6/1)

JOHAN (9/2)

SPEEDO BOY (15/2)


Thanks,


Steven

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