Saturday Betting Tips: 11/07/2020

Saturday Betting Tips: Newmarket and Ascot


Evening everyone,


Hope your all having a good week and are feeling fresh after our heroics earlier this week when we had a few nice winners. Tomorrow’s racing looks super-competitive as always, but I’m witnessing a lot of value on offer. Therefore, I have picked out plenty of selections that will hopefully provide us with a winner or two. I wish you all the best of luck, and have a great weekend.

MEDAL WINNER (12.10 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @7/1)

COUNTRY (12.10 Newmarket, 1pt win @7/2)

At the top-end of the weights, I’m quite attached to the Archie Watson-trained MEDAL WINNER who has won two of his last three races, with his victory at Chelmsford two runs ago off a mark of 90 working out well as the third horse Cape Cavalli justified favouritism this week. He then ran an excellent race to finish sixth in the Duke Of Cambridgeshire at Royal Ascot considering he was hampered at a crucial stage. Left alone on the same mark here, with the step up in trip likely to suit, I am quite confident he will go close today.

COUNTRY looked progressive last year, winning three of his six races, and shaped nicely when keeping on well to finish third on seasonal debut at Haydock last time out at a similar-level. That form has been advertised with the second, fifth and sixth all winning since. On the back of that promising display, the handicapper has been quite lenient with him, dropping him a valuable (1lb) so providing James Doyle can conserve his energy, I think he has a huge chance.

DECLARING LOVE (13.25 Newmarket, 1pt win @11/4)

DECLARING LOVE has to come into the equation based on her debut third at this track 420 days ago. Obviously, it has to be a slight concern that she hasn’t been seen since, but that piec of form is the best on offer as the first and second - Daahyeh and Raffle Prize have both won plenty of Group 1’s and Group 2 races between themselves since, and are both rated 110+ top-level performers. That puts things into perspective what Declaring Love achieved on her debut so providing she is fit enough first time up - I think she could prove to be a class-above this field, but stall 16 would have to be a concern and so would market rival Al Mutather, who was impressive on debut.

LASER SHOW (13.50 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @20/1)

EASTERN WORLD (13.50 Newmarket, 1pt win @4/1)

LASER SHOW is the other Godolphin representative, and has been running well in Meydan this year at a higher level. His form prior to those runs in the UK are rock-solid pieces of form having beaten Riot on debut who has won off a rating of 90 since, but arguably his strongest piece of form in comparison to the majority of today’s rivals was his second at Kempton when only finding Hukum too strong at the finish. That form has been well advertised by the winner, who won the King George Stakes at Royal Ascot impressively.

Form-wise, Laser Show should be a lot shorter than his odds suggest - currently available at 16/1. From a form perspective, his second behind Hukum deserves more praise than initially thought, based on the fact that he was giving the winner 7lb, became unruly at the start and raced far too keenly throughout that event so to his ultimate credit that he was only beaten one length at the line indicates he’s a very good horse. There’s just too much to like to let him go unbacked from a generous-looking mark of 97, and, for me, he looks the most glaring each-way proposition here with an actual chance of winning the race.

The Godolphin team-member EASTERN WORLD could prove to be better than his current mark of 90. Having finished second on his first couple of races, he deservedly went one better when making all to score over course and distance last time out. A good draw in stall 6 can only enhance his chances in today’s race, and I am finding it hard to see any negatives in his armour.

ALABAMA WHITMAN (14.25 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @14/1)

Richard Spencer has an excellent record in this race and tasted success in the race twelve months ago. This year he runs a couple in the race who have pressing claims of adding to his tally. Both ALABAMA WHITMAN and Odyssey Girl ran respectable races in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot finishing tenth and ninth place. Today’s race is a lot easier, and i find it fascinating that Alabama Whitman has been saved for this race ever since, along with the handicapper dropping her 3lb. James Doyle is an interesting jockey booking, and his presence in the saddle could be the key factor to seeing this smart filly hitting the frame at least, though I am hopeful she can win this having proven herself to be effective on rain-softened ground in higher-grade company.

I do fear her stablemate Odyssey Girl, who will be reunited with Silvestre De Sousa, and I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small few quid on her to win, but I am inclined to thinking the selection is the better handicapped out of the two and represents far more value at the prices.

VENTURA TORMENTA (15.00 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @14/1)

HUDSON RIVER (15.00 Newmarket, 1pt win @3/1)

Richard Hannon loves to target his best two-year-old’s at this race having won four of the last ten renewals, and VENTURA TORMENTA looks an above-average sort for connections. The mere fact that he made his racecourse debut in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, gives out clear indication that he’s held in high esteem. It is not often you see a racehorse make their debut at Royal Ascot at that sort of level let alone show plenty of promise to finish a creditable keeping-on sixth of 12 runners having been handed such a difficult task.

Impressively - it should be acknowledged that he wasn’t beaten that far considering he was up against experienced classy-opposition, and he then made good use of an excellent opportunity when making all to score at Yarmouth. I would have firmly had him towards the head of the market for this race, so I’m quite surprised to see him available at around 10/1. He’s a very exciting prospect and is well worth siding with here with the step-up in trip to seven furlongs expected to bring about even further improvement.

MOHAATHER (15.15 Ascot, 1pt win @2/1)

Just the one bet for me over at Ascot comes in the Summer Mile. I’m expecting MOHAATHER to get his career back on track here, especially following on from an interrupted passage in the QEII at Royal Ascot when finishing seventh overall. He was denied a clear run on two occasions, but to his credit, he flew home once the race was all over, and when finally in clear daylight. The promising four-year-old still retains high potential, and providing he gets a little luckier this afternoon, I can’t see anything else getting the better of him and hopefully he can make amends.

SCEPTICAL (15.35 Newmarket, 1pt win @9/2)

The feature race of the day is the Darley July Cup and although the ground will be an unknown for this horse in particular, I just have this nag feeling SCEPTICAL will go close to winning this. I thought he ran with so much credit to finish third on his first try at Group 1 level in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, considering he had yet to face any top-level performers beforehand, while taking into account that he was making his UK debut. I loved how he travelled into the race that day, and it looked for all the world like he was going to win, but he just ran out of petrol in the dying strides.

In hindsight, Frankie Dettori would have ridden him a little quieter because he believed he went too soon on him, and if he had known the horse better, he reckoned he would have got the job done. Now, Frankie gets another chance on Ireland’s biggest revelation sprinter, and he is quite confident he can win this race. Surprisingly, this race has eluded the legendary rider in his career, but he’s got an excellent chance this year, and it would be some fairytale story if he can lift the four-year-old speedster Sceptical over the winning line in front. This is clearly a much-tougher race than last time, but he represents fair value as far as I’m concerned.

KEYSER SOZE (16.10 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way @22/1)

KIMIFIVE (16.10 Newmarket, 1pt each-way @16/1)

(All odds are with bookmakers paying 5 places)

In such a competitive field, I’m happy to go double-handed in a race that will include my each-way nap of the day.

I think the price about KIMIFIVE (NAP) is completely wrong. This horse, although consistent, is possibly still a bit of an under-achiever in my eyes, but that is down to him needing an awful lot of luck in-running, which hasn’t really happened for him on quite a few occasions. That being said, he is a very well-handicapped horse, and has finished nearer the front than back in all the big-field handicaps he’s contested, showing his versatility and consistency - with most of them coming off similar marks in comparison to today’s. Tuite’s frustrating, but talented five-year-old endured a luckless passage over C&D two runs ago on his return to action when finishing sixth.

Speaking of that race, the form has worked out extremely well with the first and second Jack’s Hope and Cliffs Of Capri both running blinders at Royal Ascot afterwards. Today’s race will see him compete off the exact same mark while stall 11 is an ideal place to be. He handles cut in the ground and Richard Kingscote is a positive jockey booking. Granted, the gaps appear for him when needed, I can envisage him winning a race of this nature, therefore, I am willing to raise the stakes on him, especially knowing most bookmakers paying extra places.

This could turn out to be a good day for shrewd trainer Richard Spencer, who has started to hit the ground running this season, and I like his runner KEYSER SOZE at a big price for this fiercely-competitive handicap. His best form has come on the AW, but he’s a very good horse on the turf as well, and is well-handicapped to get involved in this sort of race providing he doesn’t fluff his lines at the gates. Cieren Fallon is an eye-catching jockey booking, meaning a big run can be expected, especially given the handicapper has dropped him 3lb for a fair midfield effort at Royal Ascot most recently.

Also, here is my shortlist if you wanting to do an each-way lucky 15 on my strongest four selections...


KIMIFIVE (16/1)

VENTURA TORMENTA (14/1)

ALABAMA WHITMAN (14/1)

SCEPTICAL (9/2)

Thanks,

Steven

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